Lies, damn lies, and statistics

I had a conversation on Friday with a media expert, who's firmly in the "internet's impact on the media is exaggerated" camp. After putting forward various arguments and counter arguments we ended up taking pot shots at one of the most basic determining factors, the proportion of UK households with internet access.


I weighed in at 90% and he thought it might be closer to 60%. According to last year's figures from the Office for National Statistics it was only around 73%, marginally closer to his estimate (though that figure must have increased to at least 75.01% by now).


I was fairly staggered - 1 in 4 UK homes are still not hooked up to the web. It puts arguments about changing patterns of media distribution and consumption into context and also demands that any talk of a digital media revolution is at least tempered with consideration that a very large minority of audiences are not currently party.


Another set of figures in the report lend weight to Prensky's emphasis on the generational divide in his natives/immigrants/dinosaurs theory:

The chart shows that a far lower percentage of older sections of the population are using the internet and also that a sizeable proportion amongst that group have tried and decided, cheers no thanks.


Finally the report also gives some raw data on usage of online tv and radio. The trend here clearly shows that participation is widening, but also that the rate of growth appears to be slowing. This perhaps hints at as yet unreached sections of TV and radio audiences who are either economically disenfranchised from the digital revolution or simply satisfied with traditional forms of distribution.

You can view the full report here and fish out a couple of stats to add weight to your own arguments about the impact of the internet on the media industries.

Every Little Helps

Tesco has just gobbled up 80% of Blinkbox and has positioned itself as the main rival to Amazon (new owners of LoveFilm) for control of the UK video on demand market. Here's an article in today's Guardian that discusses how the move might effect the future of TV and film distribution.


Tesco is the original one stop shop in the UK - the place that people go to buy newspapers, bread, fresh fruit, barbecues, wine, clothes, toasters, meat, fish, insurance, and DVDs. Tesco's business model is based on getting consumers to buy everything from one place - theirs. It has been incredibly successful, today in Britain £1 out of every £7 spent in a shop, is spent in a Tesco. Only about 20 or 30 years ago you would probably have bought those 11 products in 11 different shops, from 11 different companies. That is a definition of convergence for you right there.


Over the last decade Tesco and other supermarkets have been rapidly expanding into selling Books, DVDs and CDs. Alongside the huge sales growth of online retail giants (biggest of which Amazon) this has created a pincer movement, that has crushed specialist High Street retailers who have been unable to compete with the scale and low costs of these gargantuan operators. Our Price, Virgin Megastores/Zavvi and Tower Records have gone to the wall since 2004 and HMV and Waterstones are in rapid decline and look like they are probably on their last legs too.


One of the most interesting aspects of Tesco's move into the VoD market is that it clearly demonstrates the new players entering the TV and film industries that are emerging as likely big-hitters of the future. How the changing ownership and methods of TV and film distribution will effect production and patterns of exchange, only time will tell...

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You're fired!

(and I'm hired).

Lord Sugar has been announced today as the man in charge of saving Youview. It is the new generation of Freeview, which is backed by BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Five, BT, Talk Talk and Arqiva. The intention of these organisations is to create a set top box that can rival Sky's all-conquering HD box. It will be a one-off purchase charge (no monthly subscription fees) pricing model, similar to existing freeview. There will be oodles more services though, that will allow users to series link, pause, record etc on a hard drive as per Sky's system. It will also allow users to access 4od, iplayer and other on demand services through their televisions as well as other internet sites. This is a prime example of technological convergence, previously separate technologies coming together in a single device that performs several functions.

The project has been hit by a series of delays, largely due to the technical challenge of creating a single box that carries out so many different functions (and also by the various stakeholders arguing about which of those functions should be retained and which sacrificed in order to speed up its development). Youview was originally due to be launched at the end of 2010, but that date has since been rescheduled a couple of times and it's now due out in the spring of 2012. Many commentators are saying that if it is put back any further and they miss the 2012 Olympics, they might as well not bother. 

Summer 2012 represents a one-off golden opportunity for British retailers of TVs and set top boxes. There is likely to be a massive spike in sales, as Olympic fever grips the nation and sports fans upgrade their hardware in preparation for marathon (forgive me) viewing sessions of shooting, cycling, sailing and anything else Britain has a chance of winning a medal in. If Youview isn't in the shops in time to receive that massive (anticipated) sales boost then it could be dead in the water. Punters that have upgraded for the Olympics will not be looking to to do so again in the near future, so sales figures across the market are likely to be sluggish for a period. Sky will have added another X million subscribers to its list of long term contracts. But worse still, the technology, which is causing all of the delays will probably have become obsolete, by the time the box does eventually hit the High Street.

Here are some links to a few newspaper articles which discuss Lord Sugar's appointment and give some of the background behind Youview (formerly known as Project Canvas). There is also a link to a very interesting radio debate that discusses Youview, the place that it may fill in the British broadcasting landscape, and the potential consequences of it not being launched in time for the Olympics. It's an episode of The Media Show, which is on Radio 4 @ 13:30 every Wednesday and then available as podcasts here

The Media Show - Youview

Article from The Daily Telegraph

Article for The Independent

Blog from worldtvpc.com

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